WELCOME! Introduction

To many in the San Francisco Bay Area, Numis International in Millbrae is as trusted as a close family member. Expert in antique & estate jewelry as well as precious metals and rare coins, we serve our clients with the most up-to-date precious metals prices and investment information.

As the market for gold, silver, platinum, and other precious metals has heated up, the hunger for daily updates, news, and your requests for our opinion about the future of bullion prices has only increased.

This is our attempt to provide updated information on the precious metals markets around the world.
I welcome your comments and discussion.
Enjoy,
Al

Precious metals laugh in the face of making a correction.

Dear Friends,

The following is from DailyWealth.

I must say that the gold, silver, platinum, bullion precious metals markets have been amazing the last year.  I knew this would happen some day, but I wasn't imagining how I'd feel about the whole experience. 

Ignore the markets at your own peril.

To your success!

Uncle Al

------------------------------------------------------Chris Weber writes: The last time I was able to identify a period when a precious metals correction was about over happened two years ago...

At that time, gold hit a low of $693 and silver $9.63. Since then, gold has risen over 40%, but silver has soared 158%. This is an extraordinary occurrence in just two years.

Two weeks ago, I thought both metals, and especially silver, were due for a rest, and perhaps a correction.

Silver reached $24.75 on October 14. I expected a back-off to begin. But so far, we've had very little. Silver briefly touched as low as $23. That is a 7% fall. In the universe of silver, this is nothing. And then the rise resumed. As I wrote this, silver reached a new high of $24.91, surpassing October 14's $24.75.

This all feels unprecedented to me. Gold has not been giving people an advantageous entry point for a long time now. But silver is supposed to crash at certain times... It can almost be relied upon to do this.

Not this time. At least, not so far. Given an opportunity to correct or even consolidate its prior gains, silver barely takes a breath and then reaches new highs.

Why? Some say silver shorts are covering. But why now? Why this time? Silver prices refused to fall, and then rose... Of course under these circumstances shorts will cover.

No answer I've heard is satisfying. I just take the price action as the news. And the news is that this is bullish behavior the likes of which I don't think I even saw back in the last bull market of the 1970s.

Of course, over the life of that bull market, silver soared from $1.29 to $48: a rise of 3,600%. So far this time, silver has only risen from $4.03 to $24.91. That's "just" 518% during a similar time period.

But the feeling this time is different. Silver has only had one typical correction: from $23 to just under $10. But while the percentage correction was typical (over 50%), it was all over in just seven months. A huge and powerful bull then quickly returned silver to new highs.

And so far, this time, when I expected a real rest, silver isn't having it at all.

It is possible that average investors now think that gold is too expensive for them and see silver as something they should have. For a few hundred dollars or the equivalent in other currencies, silver is regarded as within the budgets of all investors, be they from India or Indiana, from China or Chinon.

Can you imagine what would happen if every investor on earth became convinced that they needed to own some silver? My old forecast of $187 per ounce may start to not look so wild.

One other thing has happened recently that I haven't seen mentioned. Silver has now clearly overtaken gold as the best-performing asset class since 2000. Gold has risen from $256 to $1,365. That is a rise of 433%. Silver has risen from $4.02 to $24.91. That is a rise of 520%.

As important, those advising silver accumulation have been few in number, and remain so.

For those who have been waiting to buy or add to their silver holdings, there is no guarantee we'll have any big correction, or even a consolidation. I'm forced to advise people to simply buy or add without trying to time their purchases.

In general, this is what you should do in a bull market, but I had until now thought I was clever enough to attempt to time purchases a little. I no longer consider myself so clever. So my advice is to bite the bullet and accumulate at least some physical silver.

Good investing,

Chris Weber

Note from Editor of DailyWealth: We have never seen Chris Weber wrong about any major market call – which is why he's made millions from his investments alone for the past 35 years.

Newest important story on gold

Great story on gold
Please follow this link.
Al

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6932NR20101004

"Silver is set to Shine," says Rosland Capital's Senior Economic Advisor

Dear friends,

Yes, I'm stuck on silver.  But I think it's an opportunity unsurpassed by any other current investment package.

I've reposted below an article for you to digest.

Read it, and tell me if  you agree or disagree.

All the best,

Al

--------------------------------

NEW YORK – Jeffrey Nichols, Senior Economic Advisor to Rosland Capital, had the following commentary based on recent market activity and the week ahead:

The now ten-year old bull market in precious metals has seen the price of gold move up well beyond it previous historical peak near US$875 reached briefly in January 1980. But silver has still not surpassed its all-time high of $50 an ounce -- and even remains well below its current cyclical high of $21 an ounce reached in 2008 -- leaving silver bulls disappointed but optimistic that huge gains are still ahead with the white metal ultimately reaching and surpassing its 1980 peak price in the years ahead.

Even as investment demand for silver has soared, in part due to the introduction of silver exchange-traded funds in 2006, global macroeconomic trends have cut deeply into silver jewelry and industrial use while photographic use, once the largest consumer of silver, has continued to lose ground to digital photography. 

In the next decade, a rebirth of silver industrial demand, thanks to the emergence and growth of a number of new end uses, will join continued strong investment demand to push silver prices sharply higher with the white metal gaining not only against the dollar and other old world currencies but also outperforming gold. 

Silver Mine Production

Meanwhile, silver mine production will remain relatively inelastic.  To a large extent, silver is mined as a by-product or co-product of other metals (lead, zinc, copper, and gold) -- and is dependent on mine-supply situation for these other metals and less on its own positive fundamentals. 

Only about 30 percent of total silver-mine output is from primary production, that is, from mines that are primarily silver producers, from mines that exist principally to mine silver.  About 15 to 20 percent of silver mine supply is as a co-product and the bulk, about 50 percent, is mined as a by-product where the price of silver has little influence on mine economics and decisions to invest in mine exploration and development.  Importantly, this means that the expected rise in the price of silver will not be countered by a concomitant rise in mine supply. 

Physical Investment Remains Strong

Looking ahead, physical investment demand -- for bullion coins like American Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs, for small investment bars, and ETFs -- will continue to expand in tandem with gold as growing numbers of Western investors seek safe-haven and hedge assets. 

At the same time, growing numbers of Eastern investors and jewelry consumers -- in China, India and elsewhere -- will also accumulate physical silver, reflecting rising personal incomes, silver-friendly government policies, and the maturation of precious metals market institutions and infrastructure. 

The perception of silver as a cheaper alternative to gold -- as "poor man's gold" as the metal is often called -- and a growing recognition of the white metal's increasingly bullish supply/demand fundamentals will also foster rising investor interest around the world. 

On the investment side, gold has benefited from a significant step up in institutional participation from hedge funds, pension and retirement funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds.  So far, silver has not enjoyed equal recognition from these large players -- but this is likely to change as fund managers recognize silver's relative value and simply wish to diversify their precious metals exposure.

Silver Demand Trends

The biggest silver end-use sectors are first, jewelry and silverware, followed by electrical and electronics, where the metal's outstanding conductive properties are unparalleled.  Both categories were tarnished by the global recession . . . but thanks to the economic recovery in the Asian economies and the tenacity of computer and consumer electronics demand everywhere, silver usage by these industries is beginning to pick up. 

In addition, we anticipate growing price-inspired substitution of silver for gold by jewelry manufacturers seeking to remain competitive with costume jewelry and other consumer purchases. 

For much of the past century, consumption of silver in photographic films and papers was, by far, the biggest end use of silver, at times accounting for 35 to 45 percent of annual industrial fabrication demand.  Today, photographic use is less than 10 percent of the total market -- and it is continuing to decline both in tonnage and as a share of the market due to the expansion of digital photography among consumers and, increasingly, professional photographers. 

The really exciting news for silver, in addition to the strength of investment demand, is the advent of new industrial and commercial applications.  Together, new applications may not amount to much this year or next . . . but within a few years the ounces will begin to add up and will make a meaningful bullish contribution to aggregate silver market supply/demand fundamentals. 

Its outstanding qualities as an electrical conductor, its unique anti-microbial properties offering protection against infection and disease, its excellent reflectivity, make silver a 21st-century metal.  Silver investors and analysts will be hearing more and more about solar energy, medical applications, antibacterial textiles, radio frequency identification devices, batteries, water purification, and culinary hygiene. 

Very importantly, the quantities of silver used per solar cell, kitchen countertop, surgical appliance or bandage, fabric garment, RFID, plasma screen, and other emerging end-use products are infinitesimal -- measured in microns or nano-units.  But, in not too many years, this will add up to millions of ounces a year in silver consumption. 

The fact that silver content per product is so small means that industrial demand for silver in these applications is highly price inelastic -- so that even a doubling or tripling in the metal's price will have little significant impact on consumption.  What's more, the rise in silver usage from these emerging industries should continue apace even if the Western economies remain lackluster -- or worse -- over the next five or ten years. 

Spotlight on New Uses

The most immediately promising high-growth end use for silver is from the rapidly growing solar-energy industry where the metal is used both as a conductor in solar cells as well as a reflector in mirrors.  The industry is on a high-growth trajectory thanks to government tax incentives, the imperative in some countries for energy independence, and a popular desire for alternative, clean energy.

Another new and already growing use on the cusp of rapid growth is radio frequency identification devices.  Manufacturers, distributors, and retailers are beginning to use RFIDs in place of bar codes that require visual scanning.  RFIDs can be scanned through shipping boxes, grocery bags, and even bulk containers.  What's more, RFIDs are already in significant use by a number of nations for personal identification in passports and other documents, including air and rail transportation tickets in China at a rate of billions per year. 

Next, the medical sector is beginning to turn to silver for its remarkable anti-bacterial qualities.  Surgical bandages, wound treatments, catheters, surgical and hospital garments, catheters and pacemakers are all new and important end users for what some may consider a miracle metal. 

Similarly, its biocidal properties is leading to new use of silver in culinary products to promote food and kitchen hygiene with countertops and surfaces, cooking utensils and appliances, vending machines, and food packaging that contain tiny amounts of silver. 

The textile and clothing industry -- particularly sportswear, athletic clothing, and footware manufacturers, is also beginning to look to silver as an effective preventive of bacterial odors that thrive on sweat and body heat. 

I mention these emerging new uses not because any will influence the silver price this year or next . . . but together they will take more and more ounces in the years to come with eventual implications for aggregate silver demand and future price prospects. 

Price Prospects

By historical standards, the gold/silver price ratio suggests that silver is an undervalued precious metal.  Today at 68, the ratio simply means it takes 68 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold. 

Some silver enthusiasts take comfort in the fact that over thousands of years the ratio held fairly steady around 15 or 16.  Other's point to the geological fact that the Earth's crust, as best as scientists can measure, contains some 17 or 18 times more silver than gold.

Over the past decade the ratio has been as low as 45 in 2006 and as high as 82 in 2008.  Recently, it has been near the middle of this range around 65. 

To my way of thinking, the gold/silver ratio has little predictive value -- except to the extent that expectations of a return to historical norm may be a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

What counts most are the supply/demand fundamentals in each market and the intensity of investor interest in one metal relative to the other.  Yes, investor interest in one metal versus the other may be influenced by the perception among some investors and speculators that the gold/silver ratio is above (or below) some historical mean -- but that will go only so far and last only so long. 

Ultimately, it is the relative market fundamentals that matter most -- and I believe the fundamentals now favor silver.  These fundamentals are (1) the recovery of worldwide jewelry and industrial fabrication demand, (2) the emergence of significant new uses in the years ahead, (3) the inelasticity of demand relative to price in some end-use industries, (4) the inelasticity of supply, given that at least 70 percent of silver mine output is a co-product or by-product of other metal mining, and (5) rising investor interest among both retail and institutional investors in the old industrial world and the newly industrialized Asian nations. 

Based on silver's own improving supply/demand fundamentals, I expect higher silver prices in the months and years ahead.  Consistent with my forecast of $2000 gold in the next few years, I expect silver to hit and surpass its 1980 all-time peak around $50 an ounce.  For those who want to know, this works out to a gold/silver ratio of 40  From an historical perspective this is certainly not an unrealistic relationship between the two precious metals. 

Great article - Silver - historical pointers to better things ahead

Hello friends,

I've reprinted below an article you must read.

It's from author Rick Mills.

All the best,

Al

---------------------------

COQUITLAM, BC (AHEAD OF THE HERD) - 

In the time of the ancient Babylonians - long before the periodic table - there were seven sacred metals: gold, silver, copper, iron, tin, lead and mercury.

In Roman and Greek Mythology, the First Age was called Golden, the Second Age Silver. Apollo, the god of truth and light, and teacher of medicine, carried a silver bow.

The hieroglyph of Isis (Egyptian moon goddess) is a crescent and images of her are usually reproduced with her standing on the Crescent. This has also become the symbol for silver - on old maps a crescent shows the location of a silver mine.

Islamic alchemy gave silver an important place, alchemical procedures were defined in terms of silver - the silvering of other metals, the act of giving other metals silver like qualities.

We've long practiced the science (metallurgy) of separating silver from lead - the earliest known workings of any significant size were those of the pre-Hittites of Cappadocia in eastern Anatolia, the first sophisticated processing of lead-silver ore was attributed to the Chaldeans around 2500 B.C.

Silver metal was recognized as more precious than gold when bartering in ancient Egypt - this recorded as early as 930 BC. Silver's use as money in coin form began around 2600 years ago. The Lydian (present day Turkey) Trite is considered by many experts to be one of the first coins used as money. It was made of "Electrum", a silver and gold mixture. Egyptian silver in coin form began appearing around 300BC. 

Silver and gold have stood the test of time, as a medium of exchange, a storehouse of value and a safe haven in times of turmoil.

The history of fiat money has always been one of failure (the downfall of most paper money economies can be linked directly to the costs of financing out of control military growth and wars). Every fiat currency since the Romans started diluting the silver content of their denarius has ended in devaluation and eventual collapse of both the currency and of that particular economy.

For the very first time in our history, all money, all currencies, are now fiat - the US dollar use to be gold backed and it was the rock all the worlds currencies were anchored to - when the US dollar became fiat, all the worlds currencies became fiat.

The Federal Reserve first issued its debt based paper money in 1913. Since then the US dollar has lost 95% of its value.

"The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold." Milton Friedman, Nobel Laureate

In this author's opinion silver has a few unique twists:

Firstly as a much cheaper precious metal silver is winning market share from gold buyers. The higher gold prices go the more consumers will step down to silver, more so if they think silver's price will rise substantially.

Today the gold:silver ratio stands at 65:1

Gold $1224 oz/silver $18.56 oz  =  65

Historically the ratio has been 15:1

Since silver made its nominal high in 1984 the gold:silver ratio has held fairly steady at 45:1 - with the current ratio at 65:1 either gold will have to fall or silver will have to rise to $27.20 in order to get the numbers back in sync with  45:1.

To get back to the historical average ratio of 15:1 silver would have to rise to $81.60 an oz.

Silver, like gold, also performs its function as a precious metal - acting as a storehouse of value and a safe haven in times of turmoil - although, and herein might lie the opportunity, silver seems to have been asleep on the job what with the historical gold:silver ratio being so out of whack.

Gold does seem to be performing admirably and in this authors opinion does not seem set to significantly drop in price any time soon, the Dow on gold's terms:

• In 2000 gold made its $260 per ounce low

• January 2000 the Dow was 10,900

• 10,900 / $260 per ounce = 41.9 ounces to buy the Dow

• Today at 10,443 DJII and $1,224 gold it's 8.53 oz to buy the Dow

Secondly silver is an industrial metal/commodity which, unlike gold, is consumed, therefore giving you a call on an economic recovery.

"Silver is a unique metal that wins whether the economy is going well or is in bad shape. In the latter, the investor buys it as a hedge against the downturn in the economy and the markets. And if the economy improves, then the industrial demand increases." Chintan Parikh, CPM Group commodity analyst

The bottom line? Silver gives you a nice double play with prices expected to perform well no matter what the prevailing economic or geopolitical conditions.

Third silver does not have the threat of much publicized Central Bank and IMF sales constantly overhanging it - although silver does seem to trade in lockstep with gold when this old bogey man is trotted out to the herd.

CONCLUSION

In this authors opinion, it's not if, but rather when, the gold:silver ratio will revert to a more traditional number and share price upswings will trickle down to the very few junior silver producers, the soon to be producers, developers and explorers. It's for these reasons that silver and silver junior precious metal companies should be on every investor's radar screen.

Silver is above $19 -- Don't let this opportunity pass you by!

Dear friends,

Silver for the week was up $1.07, or 5.9%, way more than gold which was up less than 1%.

These are very bullish technical signs. Hold onto your silver rimmed hats!

Silver is a hard asset -- something you can bite your teeth onto. Compared to gold, silver is an amazing opportunity, and I believe we'll see silver above $20 very soon.

I never recommend putting all your investments into one basket!  So any investment in silver must be balanced with ALL other markets -- real estate, stocks, bonds, rare coins, cash, foreign investments, and other investments too.  But silver is a GREAT current opportunity.

Don't miss out!

All the best,

Al

Since 1964! Our first TV ad -- from 1991 -- Numis buys your gold and silver -- instant cash -- no waiting.

Dear friend,
Here is one of our first TV ads from 1991 - 19 years ago (I updated it slightly since then)!

Among the many services we provide at Numis is one that you will most appreciate when you need instant cash:  We buy any jewelry containing gold, silver, and other precious metals -- even broken pieces.  Just bring in your item for an instant quote, and instant cash.

Here's the link:
Numis 197

All the best,
Al

Historical ratio of Gold versus Silver - very high right now.

Hello!

It's been a wild ride lately in the precious metals markets!

Many investors now see silver as very cheap in comparison to gold.  The ratio between silver and gold has historically been about 45 to 1 over the last century; currently the ratio is 66 to 1. Yes, gold prices are historically at record highs, so we may be in for a slight correction in the short term with gold as some take profits, but I think in the long term investors will hold their gold, and gold prices can only go up. The current price of gold is not surprising to me, given the economic and governmental currency unrest around the world.  Where else is safer place to put your cash?

Silver can only benefit from this situation.  Silver remains historically LOW price compared to gold, other precious metals, and commodities.

Some call silver “poor man’s gold”.  When investors can’t afford, or don’t want to afford, gold at such high levels, they turn to silver, and silver prices go up.  If the silver market was to see investment funds start to enter, the ratio could even reach 15 to 1, which is something that occurred in 1968 and 1980.  That would mean $50 silver.

The ratio most recently was almost 80 in the middle of 2008.

Already there are clear signs over the last few months that people around the world are aggressively adding silver to their investments after seeing record gold highs.

I expect the new industrializing countries like Brazil, China, India, and Russia to become much larger consumers of all commodities, including silver.

Don’t miss out on this wave!

All the best,

Al

Does it matter what price you pay for gold?

I read an intriguing article about gold yesterday.  Thought I should pass it on.  Does it matter what price you pay for gold?

I quote:
"What's more important is how many ounces I own in relation to the total value of my assets."

And then later in the article, "Of course we should pay attention to price. But the trick is not letting that distract you from buying what you need."

Below is the direct link to the article.  Please consider Mr. Clark's words carefully.
All the best,
Al

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/3257/what’s-more-important:-price-per-ounce-or-ounces-owned-/

Dollar is being killed -- What is one thing you can do?

Political gridlock in Washington is killing the dollar

Which political party controls the Senate? It won’t matter.  “Why won’t it matter?” you ask.  Because neither of the two major parties have the guts to do what needs to be done.

Since the late 1970’s I have been warning of the danger of devaluation of the dollar and the possibilities of hyper-inflation.

It’s no longer a prediction -- it’s happening.  You and I are watching the slow and long term decline of our Dollar.

Exactly how the weakening of the dollar will play itself out is unclear -- that it will happen is clear.  How you protect yourself from this inevitability will determine your financial situation 15 years from now.

First, let’s discuss why it’s happening, and then let’s discuss how it affects our lives.

Why is the Dollar Declining?

Our budget deficit (that’s the annual amount we overspend) and our disastrously ballooning debt (this is the combined total amount we owe) is becoming such a large number that it is close to becoming beyond our ability to repay.  Telling you the numbers hardly helps make the situation clear; let’s just say that we’re $12 trillion in debt, which is $40,000 per legal U.S. citizen, including infants.

Obama says he’s looking for ways to cut spending, but who is he kidding? He’s only been president for a little more than a year, and already he’s led a government in spending more than any president in our nation’s history.

By the end of this decade, we will need to borrow a trillion per year just to pay the INTEREST on the debt.  Eventually this will become so difficult that the only solution will be either 1) cut back government spending to almost nothing, or 2) devalue the dollar so much that we can pay back some of what we owe with cheaper money. (Feel free to call me if you need a deeper explanation of this phenomenon.)  Since option number 2 is SO MUCH EASIER, I’m sure that’s what our always-the-easy-way-out government will choose.

Why should we care about a weaker dollar?  Well, it means that everything we import -- which these days is most things -- will be more expensive.  That’s because as the dollar plummets in value, foreign companies will demand more dollars to pay for their items.

Bottom line -- whether it happens in six months or gradually over 10 years, you are watching the end of the dollar as the main world market force.  So the question is, what can you do to prepare?  If it’s in six months, there will be sudden and drastic instability.  If the changes happen more gradually, you will just slowly witness the loss of purchase power of your savings.

You must consider diversifying into other currencies, and you should consider buying a good chunk of gold and silver to balance your savings and dollar investments.

Don’t delude yourself! Now is the time to make these forward thinking investments.

When I get a call into Numis and am asked, “How high could gold go?”  I respond, "You tell me how low the dollar will go and I'll tell you how high gold can go."

But just check the news and you’ll hear about all the foreign countries that are purchasing more gold.  The Chinese, Indian, and Russian central banks hold only about 2 percent of their reserves in gold.  Western banks hold about 38 percent.  And the Chinese are now buying more gold.

On top of that, there is an obvious consensus now among pension and hedge fund managers that they should be investing more in gold.  One expert has said that if they put even 5% of their funds into gold it would trade at $5,000 per ounce!

Imagine that all your savings and investments lose half their value in two years.  Wouldn’t you have wished that at least 10% of your investments were in gold and silver?

SILVER as an investment?  Really?

It’s trading at historic lows in comparison to the value of gold.  I think it was 1980 that silver was $50/ounce while gold was about $850. That’s a ratio of 17/1.  Now silver is about $16/ounce and gold is about $1114; this is a ratio of 70/1!

As gold becomes an unreachably expensive investment, more people will likely make silver their choice when choosing an investment in bullion.

Buy only the actual metal, not any metals fund.  Too risky. The whole point of investing in bullion is to have the actual physical asset in your control.